>> it's a close call. i think she made it. what did you learn? >> 95 years since we last won on this lawn. baseball teaches you how to deal with loss and about resilience and this is a resilient and wonderful club. >> he was 15 back in 1918. >> boy, my lessons are gigantic, but baseball is important and fun. not just the department of life. you can do a lot of things. it brings people together and i knew that. i saw the full flower last night and today. >> you can go from worst to first. we finished it off here last night. >> thank you so much for everything. larry, thank you for everything. we really appreciate the generosity that you and john and tom gave us. if it's way too early, what time is it? >> it's time for "morning joe," but now it's time for chuck t

oro todd. >> go sox. >> a celebration in boston and horror story politically. president obama faces an angry and fed up public in our new "wall street journal" poll. anger over the shut down and the break down of getting things done found its way to the white house. republicans are not doing any better. the party has terrifying numbers lurking outside their window as well and the leaders are bearing the brunt of the blame. plus, a house call. secretary sebelius sits down for apologies and caustic questions from congress. we will hear what the health insurers themselves think this is all headed. good morning from new york. happy halloween, it's thursday, october 31st. this is "the daily rundown." let's get to the first reads of the morning. it's halloween and boy, is it scary. the american public is mad at hell and they are not going to take it anymore.

with the one-two punch and the health care debacle, they belt a devastating blow to washington and the parties and all their leaders. they describe the results as a shock wave. they will show how much recent events have sapped the american spirit. remember the expression? during the shut down, they pointed the finger at one house. the republicans and they spread to the doorstep of the white house and the public is increasingly losing confidence. 42% of americans approve of the president's job performance, an all time low for him. even when the president experienced a dip in his job rating, he could count on that likability number. it took a hit for the first time since he emerged as a national political figure. more folks view negatively than positively. that drop is due to the appearance of detachment on

issues like health care and nsa. >> i think he needs to step up his visibility on the questions. i have no doubt he is doing it internally because i know how he operates, but the public needs to see that. that's what is driving the personal ratings down. >> not just the president who is getting two thumbs down, but they hit another all time low. just 22% to the gop positively. a majority, 53% gives the party negatively. the way we asked this question, positive and neutral and negative. that's hard work. you have to earn it. congressional leaders from senate republican leader mitch mcconnell and harry reid and house speaker, john boehner. you have the highest negative ratings. the public is voicing frustration and nearly three quarters think congress is contributing to the problems in washington instead of working to solve them.

29% said that their own congressional representatives deserve to be reelected. that's the business anymore. 63% claim that they would give a new person a chance over their own member of congress. the highest percentage ever recorded on that question. half of folks we surveyed think there will be another government shut down. 28% don't think it's going to happen. that's how cynical the public has become. americans are frustrated. 40% say they are less confident about the health care law after what they have seen, heard, or read. they didn't tell them any specifics, just said what you know about it, how confident are they? this crisis is producing this entire mix of anger and frustration and despair and overall, just 22% believe the country is heading in the right direction. although that edged up slightly from our last poll, it's still

one of the worst findings we have ever had. there is a forboding feeling about the economy. more americans believe things will get worse than believe things will get better. 23% over the next 12 months. that sense of despair is true about the american democracy. optimism and the u.s. system of government. it's at 30%, the lowest point in nearly 40 years. this is not a conventional one party is up and is down situation. the question is what happens when everybody is down. the last time we had a situation like this was 1992 and it produced a crazy election cycle. we saw a rise of inside and empty candidates like ross perot. the majority said they belonged to neither party. this is why you don't weight polls by party id. you want to see the shifts. only third time in the history of the poll that a majority

didn't identify with a party. 32% would prefer an independent party for congress than a democrat or a republican. that's more than 28% that said they wanted to vote for a generic republican candidate. it's clear all will have explaining to do. they had high hopes for the president and 52% job rating was near an all time high for him. it didn't take long for things to go south. the investigations on benghazi and the irs, then it was the still ongoing embarrassing edward snowden leaks that raised questions about how much the president may or may not have known. september it continues with the president's indecision on whether or not to attack syria. he got a tiny bump when everyone was focused on republicans, but now between the government shut down and the bungled health care roll out, he hits the all time low with 42% approving of his job performing. that's getting close to bush

territory. he went from 75% in 2002 and at this point in his second presidency was 39% around the time of katrina. democratic pollster. all right, guys. october shock waves is the theme of both of those polls. i went through the president's numbers, fred. for a long time he had just stayed above water when it comes to all of the washington mess. he was at the end of the day seen as somebody at least outside of it a little bit. not anymore. >> you had a shut down that was finished for a purpose and most voters don't know why. you have a health care roll out that doesn't seem to be going well and as the poll showed, 50% of americans think it's likely to shut down again next year. yes, i think the president has

been dragged into that thing that people feel about washington right now. >> there is no such thing as a see saw in american politics right now. it's a race to the bottom in the same poll that had record low approval ratings for the president. we hit yet another record low in the republican brand numbers. are we in this vicious cycle of a race to the bottom? >> yeah. first of all i think you have to look at the larger poll as well and see that at the end of the day, the political points are a smaller story than the effect this has on the people's confidence and their confidence in the economy and their president and in washington overall. there is a larger story that is pretty depressing in terms of how people feel about washington and the direction of the country. it's pretty depressing on both

ends. >> i keep referring to it as a political recession. we have a political recession or depression as far as the country. what was interesting is how much they had in common so we asked people for the message they would like to send. we have democrats and independent-leaning democrats. what we want them to do in washington and same with republicans about what we wanted them to do in washington. it seems as if they are both sending the same message that they want the leaders to all work together although more so on the democratic than the republican side. >> work together and compromise and get things done. that's what the public is saying to both parties. i think to use your phrase, one of the big factors for the political depression is the voters are saying that in one voice about the parties, but neither seems to be listening that much. it's a vicious cycle. there is extreme partisanship in

the country in washington. the voters want common ground. they can't seem to find it in washington. >> it's reflected in the self identification of what political party people self identify with. two polls in a row and until we see it a second time in a row, do we make note? a majority of folks did not identify. when we asked what party we identify with, a majority did not identify with either party. we think this is only the third time ever this happened in the history of our poll and yet two polls in a row. what do you take away from that? >> it leads back to the frustration with washington and the political process and people feeling that they are not being heard. by either party. when neither party is working to

compromise, people don't want to identify with that kind of gridlock and frustration. each party has their cross to bear. >> that's born out in the question we asked about on the freeway, a democrat and a republican and independent. who would you vote for? we had a significant portion who opted for the third party candidate. >> finishing third in that three-way election. both of you worked with people running for office. running as democrats with fred and running as republicans with micah. this political environment we now have and were probably not going to see fade too much over the next six months, this feels to me like a rerun of 92. you had anger at both parties and in fact if you look at the numbers, if they are not records, they go back to 92. 92 had a corruption in capitol hill with the check bouncing scandal and out of touch

political party with the republicans in the white house and president bush was out of touch on political problems. it led to the rise of a third party and both parties getting ousted in ways we had never seen before. is that what 2014 looks like to you? >> yes. i think the short answer is yes. i think obviously in order to be somebody you have to have somebody. the problem with the third party question is that a lot of districts, there is no liable third party candidate. i would say in terms of this anti-washington anti-politician trend, it does seem to be that it is affecting republicans a little bit more than democrats. when we asked democrats how they felt about the democratic party, 73 percent per are favorable for democrats. if you ask republicans how they feel, only 49% of republicans are favorable for the republican party. this could be the republicans and the republican primaries where we see more of the

anti-incumbe anti-incumbent. >> a lot easier to work for incumbent or challenger with an r next to their name? >> you have challenges on both sides, but there is an opportunity for a third candidate and doesn't mean that a good candidate will emerge. good candidates are hard to find. that's what campaigns are for. so that there opportunities and there is a gap that is significant. there is a polling note to make. it's going to change the landscape of the 2014 election. that's hard to say at this point from this poll. >> i think they can show if there is not a real third party candidate in the races that there won't be whichever candidate there will be which capture the sentiment and be credible, that will be a strong message. >> that are is sitting out there and neither party knows how to do that right now.

two polls in a row where as we said on the phone, shock waves. we will see if the political parties know how to read the polls. thank you both. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> we have tricks and treats. up next in the data bank, including a boston number you haven't heard yet. more of today's first read. secretary sebelius takes the blame for the roll out she calls a debacle. a look ahead to the politics planner. there is only one thing to be doing todayment trick or treating. things to take place in washington. no great tradition like going around nbc row. all the foreign embassies participated in the washington things for people to do. just be careful of being out there. maybe you can offer a trick or two rather than a treat when people come knocking on your door.

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now, halloween edition of the daily run down data bank. it's kind of like candy. a few pieces are okay, but if we gave you much more than that, it's lunch. there is no candy corn in here. 37 is the percentage of the a drop in the deficit for the fiscal year that just ended. how about that? the new number from the treasury department showed a combination of more revenue like taxes and less spending. that led to a gap of $680 billion. guess what. it takes revenues and spending cuts to cut the deficit. they ought to work together on

that. $2.08 billion is how much americans are spending on candy for halloween this year. never mind the declarations for the national retail federation. they expect an additional $2.6 billion on costumes and more people in my neighborhood i swear do halloween decorations than for the holidays. 75 days is how many we have before the primary for the special election for the late bill young and florida primary will be key to see the better position for the march 11 general election. the special election of one of the most competitive seats left in the house of representatives. 16 is how many democratic women senators all in fact signed in a private letter to hillary clinton urging her to run for president in 2016. they spilled the beans about it and a list in new york on monday, sources say barbara

boxer led the effort that included other names mentioned as candidates including elizabeth warren. saying hillary runs, they won't. next up, 11 time 35 as in p.m. eastern. that's when you catch ted cruz sitting down with jay leno a week from tomorrow. the texas talkers late night debut comes on the heels of south carolina. i wonder what they will be talking about. finally eight is how manyajor sports championships the city of boston won since 2002. three world series and three super bowls and one stanley cup and more title for the celtics collection. they were the last to win before 2002, but that was back in 1986. guess what, boston. no more sympathy or chips your shoulders now. you are winners. we get it.

much more ahead to satisfy your political sweet tooth on this halloween. what the president is saying now about your insurance plan. he is including the footnote. a marriage of convenience. a deep live in the relationship between the white house and the health insurance industry. which teams were playing the last time a sitting president attended a world series game? first person to tweet the correct answer will get the on air shout out. more coming up.

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has been delivering about the upside of the affordable care act. >> now, if you have one of these substandard plans before the affordable care act became law and you really like that plan, you are able to keep it. that's what i said when i was running for office. that was part of the promise we made. >> but in boston the president followed that line with a lawyerly 33-word disclaim they're used to not be included. >> but ever since the law was passed, if insurers decided to downgrade or cancel these substandard plans, you have to replace them with quality comprehensive coverage. >> some disclaimers became a flat point for republicans. secretary sebelius. some mentioned people in their districts getting insurance

cancellations. they spent time attacking the affordable care act. >> madam secretary, while you are from kansas, we are not in kansas anymore. >> some people like to drink out of a red solo cup and not crystal with a stem. >> they don't need coverage. to the best of your knowledge, has a man ever delivered a baby? >> i think people are finding it's not what they have worked so hard to find their way to as well. >> why aren't you losing your health insurance? >> you promised the system would be ready on october 1st. you are clearly wrong. >> the questions there sound a lot more like the administration. the easy one-line answers and the republicans are taking the opportunity to score points. bringing in the thursday gaggle with the senior fellow.

the republican described with the cnbc contributor at politico. so yesterday a lot of theater. one part of this had to do with kathleen sebelius. did she hold enough to give confidence in the west wing? >> i think she held up. i don't think she held up particularly well when she was asked if it was illegal for her to sign up for obama care. it wouldn't be a good idea. >> she didn't want to admit she was on medicare. she is a very young 65. >> i don't think she inspired confidence in anyone that although the questions can be answered on the website or the fact that the president promised, you can keep your plan and that turned out not to be true. no matter how you lawyer it, the people will have to pay more for plans they wanted to keep and not going to be able to keep. that didn't come true.

did she answer any of that? i don't think so. >> how did the republican questioners do? was it too snarl? >> i like that they were focussed on the substance of obama care. this is not how well it worked. we know the answer there, but the reality is that there millions of people who are about to get plans they like. this is not about republicans having an outcry of obama care. average americans are starting to feel the impact of a very flawed health plan. they are nervous about what it means for the future. >> they did not prepare. they only talked about the great things. they never talked about transitions that are difficult. president. even when you may think it's going to be great, you have to

explain there will be changes. >> obama never focused on this the way it would be a signature issue. i talked about the signature. >> never when he wanted. this is the weirdest thing. this was -- do you know that the pledge for health care in the first term came from staff aids who said you better have something to say. we went ahead and made this pledge. >> he was never the health care guide. the primary with the first run for president, he was against the individual mandate. he bludgeoned hillary on that issue. i would turn back to the poll numbers. the numbers have not changed that much. it's even split on how they feel about it. obama's numbers have gone down because he hasn't been straight with people. now he is not willing to come forward and saying this was not

entirely what we expected or if we did, we didn't tell you what was going to happen. i'm sorry about that. here's what we will do about it. he is attacking people saying it's disingenuous that he told this as you can keep your plan and you can't. >> i had this theory that part of the white house hates the short attention span media. it played into it too much. why do you utter a line like that? . you are trying to deal with a political problem in the moment saying this is complicated and i can't answer it. he's a phenomenal speaker and he uses it to get support. things are messy as you know. if you are straight with them, this is going to take time. >> the public has patience. that's the irony of it.

the public is saying let's see if you can fix this. >> i think that hearing yesterday will be forgotten about and this is not the issue. if they don't fix it, it will be all on obama. when you continue to hear the sarm rhetoric with an asterisk and that's when people start to lose confidence. that will be reflecting directly on the president. >> that means not signing up. that's the nightmare for them. helping people. you guys are coming back and talking more politics on the new nbc "wall street journal" poll. we have big news. the new digital home is live. logon to the new website. no glitches here. you guys will find one. it will be more of the daily run

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act they had free reign. every year to limit the care you receive or use minor preexisting continues to jack up the premiums and bill you into bankruptcy. >> insurers had a key voice all the way along. it's the industry's chief lobbying group. officials were reportedly allowed to sit in on conferences that helped shape the bill. even so there indications the industry was playing both sides a little bit while advocating for reform. they spent millions to lobby behind the scenes for defeat. the new regulations would drive up cost despite the cost that the mandate alone is expected to bring in 18 million in customers in the insurance market by 2022. the big problem and the mandate they claim didn't go far enough. she was on the show when the bill was first signed into law to explain why she didn't like the amend am.

>> we are totally on the problem with respect to market reforms. you need those. we are worried the incentives won't in fact get everybody in. they will encourage people to wait until they need health care to purchase the cost for everyone else. >> yard to get everyone into the market, they provided money for the effort known as enroll america designed to get more people to sign up. they are not done lobbying for changes to the affordable care act. the organization came out in favor of a house bill that would delay billions in taxes for insurance companies. into the day, the advocates turned to the industry and will be a willing partner in reform. one of the creators of the formers ennor told me earlier this week they will go where the money is. >> they want to go after those

people who don't have health insurance if there is going to be a government subsidy. >> you think they are going to be an asset is the some point? >> they will fight to be able to sell the product like they are now in selling prescription drugs. >> if we close out the affordable care act, the question is how they would poll the number. here is the spokesman for the health insurance plan. robert, good morning to you, sir. >> i want to go back to this original issue that they had with the mandate. do you still believe this mandate is not strong enough to get the market expanded enough so that the insurance industry's actuary tables balance out? >> you can't focus just on the mandate alone. you have to look at how affordable coverage is. the more affordable, the more likely that's a strong

incentive. that goes to the heart of the issues we raise during health care reform and the issues people are talking about now, the issue of affordability. will people be able to afford coverage and decide to purchase it? you talked about the health insurance tack. that does not but add when it's a time they are trying to participate. that's why we think it should be repealed. >> why does the tax add to coverage? i am playing devil's advocate and any tax they put on you will automatically pass that to consumers. they will make them pay the tax. >> it works like a sales tax. any time you add a tax on to something that people are purchasing it adds to the cost. >> the taxes are on the insurance companies. they want to keep their profit margin a specific target and they will pass it on to the consumer. they don't have to do that.

>> the cost of providing care is increasing. any time you increase the cost it adds to the cost of the coverage. they said that clearly when the law was enacted. the tax would raise health insurance premiums. >> is the insurance industry worried that it's not going to be profitable? >> what we learn side that coverage is not affordable. we know from experience if you have reform similar to what is included in the aca, premiums skyrocket and the market detablizes. we need to make sure we have enrollment that stays the same and doesn't get moved. people can have coverage. those are the things we focus on. these reforms won't work. >> is massachusetts the model when you look back, does that model work? that is what works for the

insurance company based in massachusetts. >> they have done a lot to expand coverage. what it hasn't done is bring down health care costs. if you look at massachusetts, they continue to struggle with health care costs that are out of control. if you focus on bringing people in the system, we don't focus on addressing the underlying drivers and trying to get coverage more affordable, it won't be sustainable. you have to look at both. >> the drivers of cost are what? is it hospitals and are they not being forced? we have premiums and the industry. the cost is the medical care itself. it's the cost of providing services and prices being charged by hospitals and physicals and new medical technologies. >> they high? >> absolutely. >> they are too high. are they arbitrarily high? >> there is so much focus on how much premiums are increasing and very little focus on the plan

that health care is asked to get 20 to 40% rate increases from hospitals and doctors across the country. they have to focus on those and not look at the premiums. >> explain to me the letters that are going out to the individual markets. some companies, why are some of them saying the word cancellation and some of them aren't. can we get clarity? >> a background, the law requires that all policies cover a range of benefits that are bruder than what many people and the existing policies come into compliance. what the letters have that require that health plans have the existing policies and rather than amending the policies in place. either way it's about making sure people are coming into compliance. it's important for people to

understand that health plans want to keep their customers. when they are notifying people about how their policies are changing, they make sure they are understanding here's the options and the financial, siftance that may be available. >> help me out on the grandfather clock. the administration thought in order to keep the president's promise they keep it with the grandfather clause. by the insurance industry is not to essentially change the policies by the new law and therefore making the grand father clause moot. is that a fairway to look at it. >> that's not correct. the way the grand fathering works is any policy in effect when it was enacted is grandfathering. >> the insurance company from any state cannot change that policy. >> if there is small changes to the policy, routine changes that happen year over year, those policies lose the grandfather status. what's important is the primary

reason most policies are not grandfathered today is they performed that policy sometime in the last 3 1/2 years. those policies were never grandfather grandfathered. there is a lot of turn over. people am can be in and out and they don't keep the policies for a long time. that's why most policies have to change. they haven't been enrolled for more than a few years. >> you took every question i have. >> any time. >> our gaggle will be upcoming back. we will find out why david axelrod said the scary numbers shouldn't spook the white house yet. lemon chicken and wild rice with candy corn sprinkled on top. we'll be right back. ery day, milons ofeople

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. >> the results of last night's broadcast came as a great price to us. >> back when television was influential. the flash back. this day 75 years ago, actor orson wells apologized for the radio broadcast and realistic radio with war of the worlds, nationwide panic and tens of thousands of people believed new jersey was being invaded by martians. maybe they have been. trivia time. facing off the last time a sitting president attended a world series game. president george w. bush threw out the first pitch of the world series game in new york. an amazing strike pitch at that time. congratulations to today's winner ben goodman. the yankees lost that world series in fenway. send your guesses to msnbc.com. we'll be right back.

on this halloween our new poll shows that october has been a pretty scary month for everyone in washington, but one of the president's longtime advisers says the white house doesn't need to be fearful just yet. >> chuck, when you've been around long enough you've been through ups and downs. i went through the oil leak when people were saying this is obama's katrina and what you learn is what the poll proves again. if you have a couple of horrendous weeks the numbers will go down and the question is what do you do? one, they have to get the website going and quickly and the other is i think the president, i know the president is very much knocking heads around that building. i think people need to see some of that in public. they need to see some energy and

edge that i'm sure the folks in charge of it this website and others are seeing in the white house. >> bob herbert, katie burke and ben white. >> it was interesting, axelrod, very suddenly, david was trying to send a message. to publicly say, you're not doing enough. >> i agree. >> it's easier to see that from the outside. >> i completely agree. where i disagree, although axelrod had to say this, i think obama has to be very afraid. he's got two big problems. one is his credibility has been called into question and that is what undermined lbj in the 60s and it was a reference to katrina and the compence it issue is what clobbered george w. bush. it was katrina and the sense that the administration was

incompetent in its response. >> it's never one issue. katie, bush was 39% at this point in time and at that time this was katrina on top of a whole bunch of things, but that was a tipping point for him, and he never recovered. the president is in a small window right now. he's got -- i think he set a deadline for his political future in november 30th, right? the website's got to get ready and that's about maybe when the public's patience runs out. >> look. this is a culmination of a number of issues reflected in the poll results. you have benghazi and snowden and a flawed response on syria and the irs audit scandal and now we have obama care and the implementation. i don't think this is about the website. i think this will become a debate around the policy. my physician e-mailed me last night and i asked him what he thought about obama care and he has 20,000 patients in his office and he's not going to accept exchange plans and he's not alone in that. where are those new patients

going to find providers? i think this is the start of a much bigger discussion on obama care and health care in general in this country, and i don't think it will end well from a polling perspective from this president. >> ben, to answer some of the things -- the white house will say, yes, we botched syria publicly, but hey, did you see what the government did today? yes, this has been a painful period in budget negotiations, oh, by the way, did you see the deficit numbers? look at the results. the same thing will be on health care. it looks awful right now, but what happens when it starts working? >> they just have to hope they're right on this and it's a fair point on syria and in the end they turn out to be okay. i'm care, i'm not entirely certain. they have to answer questions about his veracity and what is happening now and the 41% could be his low point and he could bounce back up and it's equally possible if he stays where he is

and it's like the republicans are in a worse position. >> a bouncing ball sometimes ceilings sometimes get lower, too. shameless plug, you have trick-or-treat some? trick. in the in "the new york times," interest in the humanities on college campuses is fading, and i think that's a really bad sign. >> i think that all has to do with the way we do -- test, test, test and focus academics. >> treat. my daughter dressing up as a cow. she's 2 years old for halloween tonight. >> the trick is that some raccoons ate our pumpkins last night on our porch. the the treat, from the last time i was here. great irish mystery novel called "broken harbor," everyone should pick that up. it's a great read. i'm assuming it's a treat and i get to be there at the start of trick or treating. she said if you're not there she

might disown me as a father. so the trick, laguardia is to make your planes work. we'll see you right back tomorrow at 9:00. coming up next is chris jansing. all we do is go out to dinner. that's it? i mean, he picks up the tab every time, which is great... he's using you. he probably has a citi thankyou card and gets 2x the points at restaurants huh the citi thankyou preferred card. now earn 2x the points on entertainment, with no annual fee. go to citi.com/thankyoucards

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